RDP 8602: Short-Term Interest Rates, Weekly Money Announcements and Rational Forecasts
Equation (8)
Δ
r
TB
=
[
.054
]
−
.013
+
[
.236
]
1.174
*
U
Δ
M
+
[
.250
]
.691
*
E
Δ
M
+
[
.314
]
.369
UR
1
+
[
.756
]
.728
UR
2
[
1.691
]
+
3.295
ο
UR
3
−
[
1.285
]
3.296
*
UR
4
+
[
1.531
]
.712
UR
5
−
[
1.510
]
4.053
*
UR
6
+
[
2.486
]
1.595
UR
7
[
1.180
]
−
.308
ER
1
+
[
4.906
]
.158
ER
2
−
[
6.131
]
2.448
ER
3
−
[
4.721
]
.159
ER
4
+
[
6.751
]
1.369
ER
5
[
5.299
]
−
1.136
ER
6
+
[
13.856
]
.255
ER
7
R
2
=
4.2
∗
d
w
=
2.14
n
−
k
=
101
H
0
10
:
F
=
1.68
df
1
=
8
,
df
2
=
109
MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGceaqabeaafaqaae ablaaaaaaabaGaeuiLdqKaamOCaiaabsfacaqGcbaabaGaeyypa0da baWaa0baaSqaaiaacUfacaGGUaGaaGimaiaaiwdacaaI0aGaaiyxaa qaaiabgkHiTiaac6cacaaIWaGaaGymaiaaiodaaaaakeaacqGHRaWk aeaadaqhaaWcbaGaai4waiaac6cacaaIYaGaaG4maiaaiAdacaGGDb aabaGaaGymaiaac6cacaaIXaGaaG4naiaaisdadaahaaadbeqaaiaa cQcaaaWccaqGvbGaeuiLdqKaaeytaaaaaOqaaiabgUcaRaqaamaaDa aaleaacaGGBbGaaiOlaiaaikdacaaI1aGaaGimaiaac2faaeaacaGG UaGaaGOnaiaaiMdacaaIXaWaaWbaaWqabeaacaGGQaaaaSGaaeyrai abfs5aejaab2eaaaaakeaacqGHRaWkaeaadaqhaaWcbaGaai4waiaa c6cacaaIZaGaaGymaiaaisdacaGGDbaabaGaaiOlaiaaiodacaaI2a GaaGyoaiaabwfacaqGsbWaaSbaaWqaaiaaigdaaeqaaaaaaOqaaiab gUcaRaqaamaaDaaaleaacaGGBbGaaiOlaiaaiEdacaaI1aGaaGOnai aac2faaeaacaGGUaGaaG4naiaaikdacaaI4aGaaeyvaiaabkfadaWg aaadbaGaaGOmaaqabaaaaaGcbaaabaaabaWaa0baaSqaaiaacUfaca aIXaGaaiOlaiaaiAdacaaI5aGaaGymaiaac2faaeaacqGHRaWkcaaI ZaGaaiOlaiaaikdacaaI5aGaaGynamaaCaaameqabaGaeq4Vd8gaaS GaaeyvaiaabkfadaWgaaadbaGaaG4maaqabaaaaaGcbaGaeyOeI0ca baWaa0baaSqaaiaacUfacaaIXaGaaiOlaiaaikdacaaI4aGaaGynai aac2faaeaacaaIZaGaaiOlaiaaikdacaaI5aGaaGOnamaaCaaameqa baGaaiOkaaaaliaabwfacaqGsbWaaSbaaWqaaiaaisdaaeqaaaaaaO qaaiabgUcaRaqaamaaDaaaleaacaGGBbGaaGymaiaac6cacaaI1aGa aG4maiaaigdacaGGDbaabaGaaiOlaiaaiEdacaaIXaGaaGOmaiaabw facaqGsbWaaSbaaWqaaiaaiwdaaeqaaaaaaOqaaiabgkHiTaqaamaa DaaaleaacaGGBbGaaGymaiaac6cacaaI1aGaaGymaiaaicdacaGGDb aabaGaaGinaiaac6cacaaIWaGaaGynaiaaiodadaahaaadbeqaaiaa cQcaaaWccaqGvbGaaeOuamaaBaaameaacaaI2aaabeaaaaaakeaacq GHRaWkaeaadaqhaaWcbaGaai4waiaaikdacaGGUaGaaGinaiaaiIda caaI2aGaaiyxaaqaaiaaigdacaGGUaGaaGynaiaaiMdacaaI1aGaae yvaiaabkfadaWgaaadbaGaaG4naaqabaaaaaGcbaaabaaabaWaa0ba aSqaaiaacUfacaaIXaGaaiOlaiaaigdacaaI4aGaaGimaiaac2faae aacqGHsislcaGGUaGaaG4maiaaicdacaaI4aGaaeyraiaabkfadaWg aaadbaGaaGymaaqabaaaaaGcbaGaey4kaScabaWaa0baaSqaaiaacU facaaI0aGaaiOlaiaaiMdacaaIWaGaaGOnaiaac2faaeaacaGGUaGa aGymaiaaiwdacaaI4aGaaeyraiaabkfadaWgaaadbaGaaGOmaaqaba aaaaGcbaGaeyOeI0cabaWaa0baaSqaaiaacUfacaaI2aGaaiOlaiaa igdacaaIZaGaaGymaiaac2faaeaacaaIYaGaaiOlaiaaisdacaaI0a GaaGioaiaabweacaqGsbWaaSbaaWqaaiaaiodaaeqaaaaaaOqaaiab gkHiTaqaamaaDaaaleaacaGGBbGaaGinaiaac6cacaaI3aGaaGOmai aaigdacaGGDbaabaGaaiOlaiaaigdacaaI1aGaaGyoaiaabweacaqG sbWaaSbaaWqaaiaaisdaaeqaaaaaaOqaaiabgUcaRaqaamaaDaaale aacaGGBbGaaGOnaiaac6cacaaI3aGaaGynaiaaigdacaGGDbaabaGa aGymaiaac6cacaaIZaGaaGOnaiaaiMdacaqGfbGaaeOuamaaBaaame aacaaI1aaabeaaaaaakeaaaeaaaeaadaqhaaWcbaGaai4waiaaiwda caGGUaGaaGOmaiaaiMdacaaI5aGaaiyxaaqaaiabgkHiTiaaigdaca GGUaGaaGymaiaaiodacaaI2aGaaeyraiaabkfadaWgaaadbaGaaGOn aaqabaaaaaGcbaGaey4kaScabaWaa0baaSqaaiaacUfacaaIXaGaaG 4maiaac6cacaaI4aGaaGynaiaaiAdacaGGDbaabaGaaiOlaiaaikda caaI1aGaaGynaiaabweacaqGsbWaaSbaaWqaaiaaiEdaaeqaaaaaaO qaaaqaaaqaaaqaaaqaaaqaaaaaaeaafaqaaeqaiaaaaaqaaaqaaaqa aiaadkfadaahaaWcbeqaaiaaikdaaaGccqGH9aqpcaaI0aGaaiOlai aaikdadaahaaWcbeqaaiabgEHiQaaaaOqaaiaadsgacaWG3bGaeyyp a0JaaGOmaiaac6cacaaIXaGaaGinaaqaaiaad6gacqGHsislcaWGRb Gaeyypa0JaaGymaiaaicdacaaIXaaabaGaamisamaaBaaaleaacaaI WaaabeaakiaaigdacaaIWaGaaiOoaiaabAeacqGH9aqpcaaIXaGaai OlaiaaiAdacaaI4aaabaGaaeizaiaabAgacaaIXaGaeyypa0JaaGio aiaacYcaaeaacaqGKbGaaeOzaiaaikdacqGH9aqpcaaIXaGaaGimai aaiMdaaaaaaaa@33EC@